Social Signals
When Reddit piles into a stock, what happens next can be measured. Social Signals lists those moments, sorts them into setups, and keeps a running record of how each setup has played out against the market. You'll find it under Signals in the top menu.
What counts as a spike
A spike is a day when a stock gets far more Reddit mentions than it normally does. Each card shows the ticker, what else was going on around the stock at the time, and a call based on how spikes like it have gone before. Open a card for the price chart, the reasons it was flagged, the top SecBot report on the name, and a sample of what Reddit was saying.
Context chips on the card flag the details that tend to matter: a heavily shorted stock, recent insider buying or selling, an earnings report coming up, and how many comments the spike drew.
The setups
Every spike is tagged with one or more setups, each a different kind of Reddit pile-in:
- Hype after a run: mentions at least 3× normal after the stock ran 10% or more in 5 trading days.
- Cheap-stock hype: a mention spike on a stock under $10.
- First-time buzz: a stock Reddit hadn't mentioned in the prior 2 weeks suddenly spikes.
- Bullish crowd and Bearish crowd: a spike where the crowd leans one way.
- Heavily shorted: a spike on a stock with 15% or more of its shares sold short.
- Insiders buying: a spike after insiders bought $100K or more on the open market in the prior 30 days.
- Insiders selling: a spike after insiders sold $1M or more on the open market in the prior 30 days.
- Buzz into earnings: a spike with an earnings report due within 14 days.
The crowd-lean setups wait until the spike day is over before they count, so the read is based on the full day's chatter.
How each setup is scored
For every spike, SecBot takes the first close after the spike day as the entry and tracks the stock against the S&P 500 over the next 20 trading days. Each setup's card shows the average result against the market, how often those stocks beat it, the last 90 days on their own, and how many past spikes the record is built on.
If a setup's stocks keep falling behind the market, it's a bearish signal: the hype tends to fade. If they keep beating it, it's a bullish signal. Either way, the call on a live card says which way the record points.
Each setup also gets a signal strength from 0 to 100, built from four parts: the size of the move, how often it goes the same way, the number of past cases, and whether the last 90 days agree.
Alerting, watching, retired
- Alerting: the record is strong enough to send alerts, with strength 60 or more, at least 50 past spikes, and recent results that agree.
- Watching: tracked, but not reliable enough yet.
- Retired: strength fell below 30.
A setup only changes status after 5 nights in a row on the new side of the line, so one noisy week doesn't flip it. Records update every night. They're past results, not a forecast.
Live versus open
New spikes that match an alerting setup are live for subscribers, with the stock and the reasons it was flagged. Visitors see that a live setup exists, but not the ticker. Every spike opens to everyone 24 hours after it was flagged, along with the result so far. By default the page shows spikes that match an alerting setup; you can switch to show every spike.
Getting the alerts
Live setups can reach you in Telegram the moment they're flagged. Add a rule on the Watchlist page with the Reddit Sentiment category and the Social setup event, for your watchlist tickers or a group. See Alert rules.
Using it
A social setup is a read on the crowd, not a trade on its own. Lean on the setups whose records are both strong and recent, and check the call against the price chart, the filings, and the rest of the stock's picture before you act.
Next: Report Analytics.